Monday, February 09, 2009

Obama needs to get off the air...

What's really funny right now, is that Obama is tripping over his words as he speaks to the American public. It's really embarrassing too. In answering questions, he's basically going back to only a couple points (e.g. can't just do tax cuts), and tripping over most everything else. What's more - it's very funny to watch him as he back-pedals over his stances on Iraq and Afganistan as he has to match up with reality.

That said, it's also very evident from the conference that he has no clue what caused the financial problem. He seems to be putting the blame squarely on the banks, though he did at least recognize the overspending of the American public - probably only because it was an answer directly related to the overspending of the American public.

True, the banks played a large role in the financial problem. But they also didn't cause people to overspend. They didn't cause people to put money no credit cards for stuff when they didn't have money to pay for it. They didn't cause people to need pay-day-loans to make rent. They also didn't cause businesses to go to pure JIT (just-in-time) manfacturing and move away from inventories to getting it as close to when the buyer buys and minimizing any overhead.

So what does this mean?

Well, since businesses are using a lot of JIT that their cuts due to loss of demand are more immediately felt across the various sectors. It also means that their increases will be more immediately felt across those same sectors when the time comes. It's really a double edged sword.

However, the bigger issue is that we are use to spending more than a dollar for every dollar we bring in. Businesses got use to it, and now that is no longer happening. Businesses and the world need to adjust. And we're not going to spend our way out of it.

In order to get out of this, then we have to create new, steady, long-term sources of jobs. New companies that will turn into long term companies. We need to get Wall Street to stop looking at only the 1 year, 2 year, or 5 year plans; and look at the 20, 30, 40, 50 year plans.

Tightening up capital will help. It will also help to loosen that capital where it needs to go - start-ups and SMB's. In other words, the only company's that should qualify for the major capital going out should be the ones that have less than 500 or 1000 employees, and (preferably) within their first 10 years of business. All others should be on a secondary or tertiary list to get what's left over. Why? Those are the majority of the companies that will create new jobs and spend money like no one else. They mostly have nothing to lose, and they are always the ones to drive us through booms. But we also need to do it in a way so as to prevent a bust when the money closes down.